Njengoko kuqhubeka ukruthakruthwano phakathi kwe-Ukraine neRashiya, ixabiso leentsimbi zomhlaba ezinqabileyo liza kunyuka.

IsiNgesi: Abizer Shaikhmahmud, iFuture Market Insights

Ngelixa ingxaki yokubonelela ngempahla ebangelwe ngubhubhani we-COVID-19 ayikabikho, uluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe lungenise imfazwe yaseRussia-Ukraine. Kwimeko yokunyuka kwamaxabiso njengeyona nto ixhalabisayo, oku kuvalwa kungadlulela ngaphaya kwamaxabiso epetroli, kuqukwa nemimandla yemizi-mveliso efana nesichumiso, ukutya kunye neentsimbi ezixabisekileyo.

Ukusuka kwigolide ukuya kwi-palladium, imboni yesinyithi yomhlaba enqabileyo kuwo omabini la mazwe kunye nehlabathi inokuhlangabezana nemozulu embi. IRashiya inokujongana noxinzelelo olukhulu ukuhlangabezana ne-45% ye-palladium ye-global supply, kuba imboni sele isengxakini kwaye imfuno idlula ukubonelela. Ukongezelela, ukususela kwingxabano, izithintelo zokuthutha umoya ziye zandisa ngakumbi ubunzima babavelisi be-palladium. Ehlabathini lonke, iPalladium isetyenziswa ngakumbi ukuvelisa iziguquli ze-automotive catalytic ukunciphisa ukukhutshwa okuyingozi kwi-oyile okanye iinjini zedizili.

I-Russia ne-Ukraine zombini amazwe abalulekileyo emhlabeni anqabileyo, athatha isabelo esikhulu kwimarike yehlabathi. NgokweFuture Market Insights eqinisekiswe yi-esomar, ngo-2031, inqanaba lokukhula elihlanganisiweyo lonyaka kwimakethi yentsimbi enqabileyo yehlabathi iya kuba yi-6%, kwaye omabini la mazwe anokufumana indawo ebalulekileyo. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yemeko yangoku, uqikelelo olungentla lunokutshintsha kakhulu. Kweli nqaku, siza kuxoxa nzulu ngempembelelo elindelekileyo yolu xilo kumashishini angundoqo apho iintsimbi zomhlaba ezinqabileyo zisasazwa khona, kunye nezimvo malunga nefuthe elilindelekileyo kwiiprojekthi eziphambili kunye nokuguquguquka kwexabiso.

Iingxaki kwishishini lobunjineli/lolwazi lobuchwephesha zisenokwenzakalisa umdla wase-United States naseYurophu.

I-Ukraine, njengeyona ndawo iphambili yobunjineli kunye neteknoloji ye-IT, ithathwa njengendawo enengeniso ye-offshore kunye ne-offshore yeenkonzo zeqela lesithathu. Ngoko ke, uhlaselo lwaseRashiya kumahlakani ommandla owawusakuba yiSoviet Union luya kuchaphazela umdla wamaqela amaninzi—ingakumbi iUnited States neYurophu.

Oku kuphazamiseka kweenkonzo zehlabathi kunokuchaphazela iimeko ezintathu eziphambili: amashishini anikezela ngokuthe ngqo iinkqubo zomsebenzi kubaboneleli benkonzo kulo lonke elaseUkraine; Ukuthunyelwa komsebenzi kwiinkampani kumazwe afana neIndiya, ezongezelela amandla abo ngokuthumela izixhobo ezivela eUkraine, kunye namashishini anamaziko eenkonzo zoshishino lwehlabathi aqulunqwe ngabasebenzi bendawo yemfazwe.

Izinto ezinqabileyo zomhlaba zisetyenziswa ngokubanzi kumacandelo aphambili e-elektroniki anjengee-smartphones, iikhamera zedijithali, ii-hard disks zekhompyutha, izibane ze-fluorescent kunye nezibane ze-LED, iimonitha zekhompyutha, i-flat-panel TV kunye nemiboniso ye-elektroniki, egxininisa ngakumbi ukubaluleka kwezinto ezinqabileyo zomhlaba.

Le mfazwe ibangele ukungaqiniseki okuxhaphakileyo kunye neenkxalabo ezinzulu kungekuphela nje ekuqinisekiseni iitalente, kodwa nasekuveliseni izinto ezibonakalayo zeteknoloji yolwazi (IT) kunye neziseko zonxibelelwano. Ngokomzekelo, imimandla eyahlulwe yaseUkraine e-Donbass ityebile kwimithombo yendalo, eyona nto ibalulekileyo imigodi ye-lithium.Lithium isasazwa ikakhulu kwi-Kruta Balka ye-Zaporizhzhia state, i-Shevchenkivse indawo yemigodi yaseDontesk kunye ne-polokhivsk yendawo yemigodi ye-Dobra yendawo yaseKirovohrad. Okwangoku, ukusebenza kwemigodi kule mimandla kuyekile, nto leyo enokukhokelela ekuguquguqukeni okukhulu kumaxabiso esinyithi emhlabeni anqabileyo kule ndawo.

Ukunyuka kwenkcitho yokhuselo lwehlabathi kukhokelele ekwenyukeni kwamaxabiso entsimbi enqabileyo yomhlaba.

Ngenxa yomgangatho ophezulu wokungaqiniseki okubangelwa yimfazwe, amazwe ehlabathini lonke enza iinzame zokuqinisa amandla awo okhuselo nomkhosi, ingakumbi kwimimandla ephantsi kwempembelelo yaseRashiya. Umzekelo, ngoFebruwari 2022, iJamani yabhengeza ukuba iza kwabela i-100 yeebhiliyoni zee-euro (i-113 yeebhiliyoni zeedola) ukuseka ingxowa-mali yomkhosi oxhobileyo okhethekileyo ukugcina inkcitho yayo yokhuselo ngaphezulu kwe-2% ye-GDP.

Olu phuhliso luya kuba nefuthe elibonakalayo kwimveliso yomhlaba enqabileyo kunye nemibono yamaxabiso. La manyathelo angasentla asomeleza ngakumbi ukuzibophelela kwelizwe ekugcineni umkhosi wokhuselo welizwe owomeleleyo, kwaye uncedisana nophuhliso oluninzi oluphambili kwixa elidlulileyo, kuquka nesivumelwano ekwafikelelwa kuso kunye neNorthern Minerals, umenzi wesinyithi okumgangatho ophezulu wase-Australia, ngo-2019 ukuba asebenzise izimbiwa ezinqabileyo zomhlaba ezifana nezimbiwa. neodymium kunye nepraseodymium.

Ngeli xesha, iUnited States ikulungele ukukhusela indawo yayo ye-NATO kuhlaselo oluvulekileyo lwaseRussia. Nangona ingayi kuthumela imikhosi kumhlaba waseRussia, urhulumente ubhengeze ukuba ugqibe kwelokuba akhusele yonke i-intshi yendawo apho kufuneka kufakwe imikhosi yokhuselo. Ngoko ke, ulwabiwo lwebhajethi yokukhusela lunokunyusa, oluya kuphucula kakhulu ithemba lexabiso lezinto ezinqabileyo zomhlaba.Ifakwe kwi-sonar, izibuko zombono ebusuku, i-laser rangefinder, inkqubo yonxibelelwano kunye nesikhokelo kunye nezinye iinkqubo.

Impembelelo kwishishini le-semiconductor yehlabathi inokuba mbi ngakumbi?

Ishishini lehlabathi jikelele le-semiconductor, ekulindeleke ukuba lijike embindini ka-2022, liza kujongana nemiceli mngeni emikhulu ngenxa yokungqubana phakathi kweRussia neUkraine. Njengomboneleli ophambili wamacandelo afunekayo kwimveliso ye-semiconductor, olu khuphiswano lucacileyo lunokukhokelela kwizithintelo zokwenziwa kwemveliso kunye nokunqongophala kobonelelo, kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso amaninzi.

Ngenxa yokuba iitshiphusi ze-semiconductor zisetyenziswa kakhulu kwiimveliso ezahlukeneyo ze-elektroniki zabathengi, ayimangalisi into yokuba nokunyuka okuncinci kweengxabano kuya kuzisa lonke ikhonkco lokubonelela kwisiphithiphithi. Ngokwengxelo yoqwalaselo lwemalike yexesha elizayo, ngo-2030, ishishini letshiphu lehlabathi jikelele le-semiconductor liya kubonisa izinga lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiweyo le-5.6%. Lonke ikhonkco lokubonelela nge-semiconductor libandakanya i-ecosystem enzima, iquka abavelisi abavela kwimimandla eyahlukeneyo ababonelela ngemathiriyeli ekrwada eyahlukeneyo, izixhobo, itekhnoloji yokuvelisa kunye nezisombululo zokupakisha. Ukongeza, ikwabandakanya abasasazi kunye nabavelisi bezinto zombane zabathengi. Nokuba isibonda esincinci kulo lonke ikhonkco siya kuvelisa ugwebu, oluya kuchaphazela wonke umntu ochaphazelekayo.

Ukuba imfazwe iya isiba mandundu, kunokubakho ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okunzulu kwishishini le-semiconductor yehlabathi. Amashishini aya kuqalisa ukukhusela imidla yawo kwaye aqokelele inani elikhulu leetshiphusi zesemiconductor. Ekugqibeleni, oku kuya kukhokelela ekunqongophelweni ngokubanzi kwe-inventory. Kodwa inye into efanele ukuqinisekiswa kukuba le ngxaki inokupheliswa. Kukukhula kwemarike ngokubanzi kunye nokuzinza kwexabiso kwishishini le-semiconductor, ziindaba ezimnandi.

Ishishini lezithuthi zombane kwihlabathi liphela linokujongana nokuxhathisa okubalulekileyo.

Ishishini leemoto lehlabathi linokuziva eyona mpembelelo ibalulekileyo yolu ngquzulwano, ngakumbi eYurophu. Ehlabathini lonke, abavelisi bagxile ekumiseleni ubungakanani bale mfazwe yokubonelela ngehlabathi. Iintsimbi zomhlaba ezinqabileyo ezinjenge-neodymium, i-praseodymium kunye ne-dysprosium zihlala zisetyenziswa njengemagnethi esisigxina ukuvelisa ukukhanya, iimotor ezibambekayo kunye nezisebenzayo zokutsala, ezinokukhokelela kubonelelo olungonelanga.

Ngokohlalutyo, ishishini leemoto laseYurophu liya kuba nempembelelo enkulu ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kokubonelelwa ngemoto eUkraine naseRussia. Ukusukela ekupheleni kukaFebruwari 2022, iinkampani ezininzi zeemoto zehlabathi ziyekile ukuthumela iiodolo ezivela kubathengisi basekhaya ukuya kumahlakani aseRussia. Ukongeza, abanye abavelisi beemoto bacinezela imisebenzi yokuvelisa ukuphelisa oku kuqiniswa.

Ngomhla wama-28 kuFebruwari, 2022, uVolkswagen, umenzi weemoto waseJamani, wabhengeza ukuba bagqibe ekubeni bayeke ukuvelisa kwiifektri ezimbini zombane kangangeveki yonke kuba uhlaselo luphazamise ukuhanjiswa kwezixhobo. Umenzi wemoto uye wagqiba ekubeni ayeke imveliso kwimveliso yaseZvico kunye nefektri yaseDresden. Phakathi kwamanye amacandelo, ukuhanjiswa kweentambo kuye kwaphazamiseka kakhulu. Ukongeza, ukubonelelwa kwezitshixo ezingundoqo ezinqabileyo zomhlaba ezibandakanya i-neodymium kunye ne-dysprosium nazo zinokuchaphazeleka. Iipesenti ezingama-80 zezithuthi zombane zisebenzisa ezi ntsimbi zimbini ukwenza iimotor zemagnethi ezisisigxina.

Imfazwe e-Ukraine inokuchaphazela kakhulu imveliso yehlabathi yeebhetri zezithuthi zombane, ngenxa yokuba i-Ukraine yimveliso yesithathu enkulu ye-nickel kunye ne-aluminium emhlabeni, kwaye ezi zixhobo zimbini zixabisekileyo ziyimfuneko kwimveliso yeebhetri kunye namalungu esithuthi sombane. Ukongeza, i-neon eveliswe eUkraine ithatha malunga ne-70% ye-neon efunekayo kwiitshiphu zehlabathi kunye namanye amacandelo, asele enqongophele. ubude obutsha obumangalisayo. Eli nani linokuba phezulu kuphela kulo nyaka.

Ngaba le ngxaki iya kuchaphazela utyalo-mali lwezorhwebo lwegolide?

Ukuvalwa kwezopolitiko phakathi kweUkraine neRussia kubangele amaxhala amakhulu kunye namaxhala kumashishini amakhulu. Nangona kunjalo, xa kuziwa kwimpembelelo kwixabiso legolide, imeko iyahluka. I-Russia lilizwe lesithathu ngobukhulu emhlabeni abavelisi begolide, ngemveliso yonyaka ngaphezu kweetoni ezingama-330.

Ingxelo ibonisa ukuba kwiveki yokugqibela kaFebruwari 2022, njengoko abatyali-mali befuna ukuhlukanisa utyalo-mali lwabo kwiimpahla ezikhuselekileyo, ixabiso legolide linyuke kakhulu. Kuxelwe ukuba ixabiso legolide lendawo liphakame nge-0.3% ukuya kwi-1912.40 yeedola zase-US nge-ounce nganye, ngelixa ixabiso legolide lase-US lilindeleke ukuba linyuke nge-0.2% ukuya kwi-1913.20 yeedola zase-US nge-ounce nganye. Oku kubonisa ukuba abatyali-mali banethemba elikhulu malunga nokusebenza kwesi sityebi esixabisekileyo ngexesha lobunzima.

Kunokuthiwa eyona nto ibalulekileyo yokusetyenziswa kwegolide kukwenza iimveliso zombane. Ingumqhubi osebenzayo osetyenziswa kwizixhumi, oonxibelelwano lwe-relay, utshintsho, i-welding joints, iingcingo zokudibanisa kunye nemicu yokudibanisa. Ngokubhekiselele kwimpembelelo yokwenene yentlekele, akucaci ukuba kuya kubakho nayiphi na impembelelo yexesha elide. Kodwa njengoko abatyali-mali befuna ukutshintsha utyalo-mali lwabo baye kwicala elingathathi hlangothi, kulindeleke ukuba kubekho iingxabano zexesha elifutshane, ngakumbi phakathi kwamaqela alwayo.

Ngenxa yokungazinzi kakhulu kongquzulwano lwangoku, kunzima ukuqikelela umkhombandlela wophuhliso lweshishini lesinyithi somhlaba esinqabileyo. Xa sijonga indlela yophuhliso lwangoku, kubonakala ngathi uqoqosho lwemarike yehlabathi lujonge ukudodobala kwexesha elide ekuvelisweni kweentsimbi ezixabisekileyo nezimbiwa zomhlaba ezinqabileyo, kwaye amakhonkco obonelelo angundoqo kunye namandla okuguquguquka aya kuphazamiseka ngexesha elifutshane.

Ihlabathi lifikelele kwixesha elinzima. Kanye emva kwendyikityha ye-coronavirus (Covid-19) ngo-2019, xa imeko yayiqala ukuba yesiqhelo, iinkokeli zezopolitiko zathatha ithuba lokuphinda ziqale ukunxibelelana nezopolitiko zamandla. Ukuze bazikhusele kule midlalo yamandla, abavelisi benza konke okusemandleni ukukhusela ikhonkco lokubonelela kunye nokuyeka ukuvelisa naphi na apho kuyimfuneko.Okanye ukusika izivumelwano zokusasazwa kunye namaqela alwayo.

Kwangaxeshanye, abahlalutyi balindele intlantsi yethemba. Nangona izithintelo zobonelelo ezivela eRussia naseUkraine zinokuphumelela, kusekho indawo eyomeleleyo apho abavelisi bafuna ukubeka unyawo eTshayina. Ukuqwalasela ukusetyenziswa ngokubanzi kweentsimbi ezixabisekileyo kunye nemathiriyeli ekrwada kweli lizwe likhulu laseMpuma Asia, izithintelo eziqondwa ngabantu zinokumiswa. Yonke into ixhomekeke kwindlela iinkokeli zala mazwe mabini ziwusingatha ngayo lo ngquzulwano.

U-Ab Shaikhmahmud ngumbhali wesiqulatho kunye nomhleli weFuture Market Insights, uphando lwemakethi kunye nenkampani yokucebisana nophando lwemakethi eqinisekiswe yi-esomar.